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Hi guys
I haven’t posted here in a while but I heard about an incident the other day and I must know what you guys think.
I’m originally from South Africa and my cousin was attacked twice this year at gunpoint near my house (in broad daylight), and they robbed him and forced him to give up all his belongings. If that isn’t bad enough I have to go back to SA for a few weeks in the near future, and the second attack is really bothering me and as it happened near my house I’m thinking that I should be ready for anything.
So as the story goes he was walking on the pavement (sidewalk for USA’ns) and a van pulled up in the road, they pointed a gun at him and demanded his money and cellphone. He only had like $2 on him and no cellphone (maybe because they already stole it last time!) and they did not believe that he did not have a cellphone on him.
So they demanded that he comes up to the van. He refused (I think he just stood there and didn’t move he didn’t actually protest) and so they sent one of the guys out of the van to search him!!! They found nothing on him and drove off.
So of course my question is what would you do? I mean, I’d get pretty afraid as soon as they tell me to approach the van, and I honestly wouldn’t want to stick around as soon as one guy is coming out the van because they could kidnap me. To give a better idea, I know of some people who have been kidnapped and it basically involves getting driven off into the townships, brutally tortured for hours or days and then killed, mostly by sticking a tyre over your head and burning you alive.
So that’s not my idea of fun, I’d rather get shot running away than get kidnapped. But my question is, how can you tell if they’ll kidnap you, when do you decide enough is enough you will run, and how can you possibly run fast enough and effectively enough that they have the minimum chance to shoot you?
My tactic would be to wait until they are talking (i.e. occupying their mind with other things) and then run as fast as possible towards the back of the van. But there’s no guaranteeing that they won’t try shooting you (in fact let’s assume they WILL try) or that they won’t run after you or drive after you, who knows? My guess is that if the driver is in the van it is hard to shoot you once you are to the sides because the window gets in the way, and he’ll definitely have to shoot one-handed too. Question is, how do you make the fastest start, being as un-noticeable as possible (you don’t want them to shoot you as soon as they notice you’re moving). I experimented a bit just now and found two methods for fast running from a standing start. One is to kick your opposite leg out in the opposite direction as fast as possible, simulataneously extending your closer leg and propelling to the side. The other option is to kind of drop down with your weight on your back leg and propelling forwards. Any other options? How can you make it as undetectable as possible?? And how do you choose your moment to make a move?
So what do you guys say?
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
quote Liquid Rockface:…So that’s not my idea of fun, I’d rather get shot running away than get kidnapped. But my question is, how can you tell if they’ll kidnap you, when do you decide enough is enough you will run, and how can you possibly run fast enough and effectively enough that they have the minimum chance to shoot you?…Wow, I can’t really say I have much experience with any of this btu I’ve heard that you’re supposed to run in a zig-zag pattern from somebody trying to aim at you.
That being said, give them what your carrying, and most importantly don’t carry too much or look like a target (e.g. dress down?).
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
Wow, L.R., that scenario is frightening. Great question to pose to the KM community. I tend to agree with you. I think I’d rather get shot trying to run away than risk suffering worse scenarios if abducted.
I really hope that some of our L/E or military members will share their ideas on what the best options would be in a situation like that.
I think this is another example of how important it is to think about those things ahead of time because of the tendency (likelihood?) to freeze in the moment.
Thanks again, L.R. – Great post!
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
Well, this is going to get very complicated very fast… I am sure this thread will get a lot of response, so hold on!
So much of this situation is dependant on rapidly evolving and changing circumstances. I honestly don’t think you are going to get the answer you are looking for. You are going to have to do the best you can in the given moment. Unless you are training in whatever techniques you are planning on using on a regular basis and under stress, it is most likely all of that will go entirely out the window. Stick to the basics is the best advice I can give you for those questions. I will give you some basic LE based advice.
Let’s address some basic self-defense 101. First of all avoid walking at times that are in the evening or early morning hours and try to walk with a friend regardless. I know that this may be an inconvenience for you, but hey so is getting robbed and possibly killed.
NEVER go to a second location- it is a sure fire way to die, period. It is better to be left for dead in the street where you have a chance, then to be taken away and killed on somebody else’s terms meaning when, where, and how because time is on their side. If they grab you and try to pull you into the van, well then you have your answer.
Your “Nike” defense is solid, and yes- run in the opposite direction the vehicle is pointed and get off the main road and into a store or populated location quickly.
Keep your eyes peeled at all times and watch who is following you, walk on the opposite side of the road so you can see vehicles approaching you. If a vehicle does “swing around” to pull up along side of you, it gives you time pivot in the opposite direction and use the “Nike” defense as they are trying to negotiate this move. Play the “what if” game as you walk. If a car stopped right now what would you do, ask yourself what cover is available to you right now and how would you get to it safely.
Try to run at an angle and keeping the van in between the shooter and yourself to buy more time before you can get to better cover or concealment. While you can’t outrun a bullet, you can outrun a typical unskilled shooter’s ability to hit you when you run in a zigzag pattern. Yes, it looks silly but at least you will have the chance to look back at the moment.
Last but not least, don’t wear flashy clothing or accessories and keep your valuables out of eyesight at all times. Don’t get cased in the market or shop and then get robbed a few blocks down the road because you pulled out a cell phone or excessive cash while shopping. And for goodness sakes, don’t walk around with your earphones in! If you are going for a jog, then only put ONE earphone IN so you can actually HEAR around you.
I have found in the duration of my job that the person that looks aware of their surroundings is least likely to be attacked, not always a guarantee but it’s an advantage. Good luck and be safe.
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
That’s a good idea to walk with the traffic facing you, I’ll remember that as much as possible. Remember, this happened in broad daylight, and possibly there were other people around. Sadly, it’s not always possible to walk with a friend because I don’t have any friends in the area and it wouldn’t help anyway as the first time he was robbed he was with like 3 friends! These guys attack in groups.
As it is I don’t dress flashy, I don’t even wear a watch, or any jewellery or anything. I guess the best chance to run is actually as soon as you realize that somebody is coming after you in their car, even before they pull the gun out on you. I’m pretty sharp but it is still possible to get caught by surprise. And if you’re too worried about the cars on the road, you might completely overlook some guy on the street who’s approaching you!
Re the zig zag, that would only really work against somebody with a good aim surely. Because let’s say that a person with a bad aim is going to shoot in a general area around where you are. If you are zig zagging and he has a bad aim, he might actually be MORE likely to be hit because you have moved off into his “miss” area. That is my idea anyway. I don’t actually have any idea on the shooting skills of these guys. I think one can safely assume that they practise and have a good aim.
My question is, how fast is the human response to somebody taking flight if you point a gun at them, how long would it take them to aim and fire, and how far away can you be by then?
My calculations, based on experience say that it could take as long as a second before they notice that you’re running (I had my bicycle stolen from in front of me, I was READY for the guy to flee and to catch him, and it really took me a while to get going still). Then maybe half a second for him to aim the gun and another half a second to press the trigger. So that’s like 2 seconds.
It will take you about half a second to start running (by kicking your leg out in the opposite direction I think is one of the best ways to get a standing start, and it also gives the impression that you will run in the opposite direction that you intend) so you have basically one and a half seconds to get as far away and at as awkward as possible angle.
How about running and keeping your head down? Trying to keep a low profile while running?
I’d really like some more advice on how to get a good running start, and also if somebody could get statistics on probability of kidnapping in South Africa.
Here is what I managed to get:
http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/CrimeQ/No.14/Pharoah.htm
http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/News/0,9294,2-7-1442_2081664,00.html
http://www.saps.gov.za/statistics/reports/crimestats/2007/april_sept2007/crime_report20062007.pdf
http://www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/crime1justice/0,2172,172178,00.htmlI found a website with some personal anecdotes of crime in my city, and apparently one woman was mugged in the main road of the centre of the city by 4 men with knives, people witnessed it and did nothing.
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
This is interesting too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmzIc6ANjWI
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
Well, sounds like you already have a game plan then. Good luck, try to have a good trip and come back home safely.
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
quote Liquid Rockface:Re the zig zag, that would only really work against somebody with a good aim surely. Because let’s say that a person with a bad aim is going to shoot in a general area around where you are. If you are zig zagging and he has a bad aim, he might actually be MORE likely to be hit because you have moved off into his “miss” area. That is my idea anyway. I don’t actually have any idea on the shooting skills of these guys. I think one can safely assume that they practise and have a good aim.I think the idea is that if you allow them to take their time aiming as you run away in a straight line, then they are more likely to actually hit. Especially if they can see how far off they are. But if you make them keep moving their aim, then they always have to start aiming from scratch.
quote Kirsten:cav
I didn’t see your post til now… You been repped!Thank you! And it’s good to have confirmation on my contributions. Your suggestion of walking against traffic is a great one.
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
Ok yeah that makes sense. And what if they are firing randomly in your direction? Does the zig zag then make it better or worse? Isn’t it better to run further away (i.e. in a straightish line)?
And what about running with your head bent over a bit? Good idea isn’t it?
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
Statistically, using the zigzag method of running (as silly as it sounds) has been shown to reduce the likelyhood of being shot when compared to running the same distance in a straight line. Its taught to LE when you must run to cover over a distance and are under fire, and yes you are correct about bending over slightly.
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
Well If I was in that situation I wouldnt even want to be in a confrontation with these guys (you can fight or you can run, but neither will guarantee youll walk away in victory other then not being there) and your best bet is doing everything you can to evoid them which that all falls back to situational awareness (big time). Pay close attention to your surroundings to look to see if your being followed or observed and if so alternative routes you can take and be random dont walk down the same place all the time if you dont have too. Wear clothes that dont stand out (or say you have money) and possibly if it adheres to the previous statement a hat or sunglasses that block people from making eye contact with you but you yourself can still see them or atleast use your peripheral vision in watching them. Nothing says secret agent though like a huge hat and raybans lol so keep that in mind when picking stuff like that out. Good luck.
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
I think your best bet would be to run, into the opposite direction the car is facing. That way, they would have to turn around before they could follow you, which could give you enough time to get away. If one of them decided to follow you on foot, he would have to get out of the car first and then shoot while running after you, which would make it hard for him to hit you.
If they don’t specifically target you, there is a good chance that the bad guys might not even want to go through too much trouble just to catch you. It would probably be easier for them to look for another victim, who will follow their commands and approach the van.
If they do shoot, as was said before, run in a zigzag pattern. Hopefully, you’ll get to a crowded area, or a store, or wherever else it might be safe. If you were to follow their commands and actually approach the van, you’d be at their mercy, because even KM couldn’t help you much if you are facing a large number of armed attackers. You might disarm one, but then the other might shoot. And the closer you get, the easier it is for them to shoot you.
I would assume that they would expect you to be scared and stunned and would think that you would react by either following their commands or maybe just standing there (as your friend did). If you can train yourself to run as soon as you see them, it may catch them off guard and hopefully you’ll be able to cover some distance before they even have a chance to react.
Re: Real Life Gun Scenario – help!!
I have worked out a model for the optimal way for a person to run away from a gun, especially if it’s in an open field or other open area with no cover. If anybody is interested I can post it with full explanation in a separate thread. I think this might well be the very first model of how to run away from a gun!
I would be very interested in trying this out with a paintball gun, and scientifically settling once and for all the odds of a relatively fit person running away from a gun. I have worked out a method for testing that too, and if anybody has the resources, I’d be very grateful. Maybe it could be broadcast on YouTube too.
Of course running away from a gun is a worst case scenario, but if you need to run away from somebody who’s trying to murder you, it’s something worth giving a shot (excuse the pun).
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